A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
