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Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of votes added after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there existed a little resistance. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.